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As of late 1980s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models could accurately predict whether cloud systems would help or hurt a warming globe. Some studies suggested that a four percent increase in stratocumulus clouds over the ocean could compensate for a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide, preventing a potentially disastrous planetwide temperature increase. On the other hand, an increase in cirrus clouds could increase global warming.

That clouds represented the weakest element in climate models was illustrated by a study of fourteen such models. Comparing climate forecasts for a world with double the current amount of carbon dioxide, researchers found that the models agreed quite well if clouds were not included. But when clouds were incorporated, a wide range of forecasts was produced. With such discrepancies plaguing the models, scientists could not easily predict how quickly the world's climate would change, nor could they tell which regions would face dustier droughts or deadlier monsoons.

It can be inferred that one reason the fourteen models described in the passage failed to agree was that

A.they failed to incorporate the most up-to-date information about the effect of clouds on climate
B.they were based on faulty information about factors other than clouds that affect climate
C.they were based on different assumptions about the overall effects of clouds on climate
D.their originators disagreed about the kinds of forecasts the models should provide
E.their originators disagreed about the factors other than clouds that should be included in the models

C显示答案

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