发布时间：2022-09-15
11.
The argument overlooks the strong possibility that the recycling habits of West Egg residents are not the only factor affecting howquickly the landfill will reach capacity. Other such factors might include population anddemographic shifts, the habits of people from outside West Egg whose trash alsofeeds the landfill, and the availability of alternative disposal methods suchas burning. Thus,regardless of the recycling efforts West Egg residents the landfill mightnevertheless reach full capacity by the date originally forecast.
18.
The argument assumes that all other factorsaffecting highway accident rates have remained unchangedsince thecounty lowered its speed limit. Yet the author fails to provide evidence tosupport this assumption. It is entirely possible that the lower speed limit does in fact serveto reduce the accident rate, while some other factor, such as unseasonably poorweather, reduced law enforcement measures, or even an influx of teenage driversto the area, hasserved to increase the accident rate. Without considering and ruling out these andother factors that might have served to increase the accident ratesince the speed limit was lowered,the author cannot justifiably conclude that thissafety effort has failed.
19.
The manager also overlooks the possibility that one or morefactors other than Ad Lib’s efforts or DR’s popularity were insteadresponsible for the Megalopolis success. For instance, perhaps DR shared thebill at the concert with another band, whose appearance was the actual reasonfor the concert’s success. If so, this fact would seriously weaken the manager’s claimthat the Megalopolis success is attributable to Ad Lib’s efforts andto DR’s popularity in Megalopolis—whether or not that popularity resulted formAd Lib’s campaign.
150.
Even if I concede that theintroduction of trout was not the cause of Yosemite’s amphibian decline, the author providesno evidence that the decline was caused by pollution—rather than some other phenomenon. Perhaps someother environmental factor was instead the cause. Without ruling outall other possible explanations the author cannot convince me that pollution isthe cause of the worldwide amphibian decline—or even the decline in Yosemitealone.
156.
Even if Mega’s attendees are involved insales and customer relations, the ad unfarily assumes that the improvement in Mega’ssales must beattribute to the seminar. Perhaps the improvement in sales was the result ofincreasing product demand, new pricing policies, decreased competition, or any one of amyriad of other possible developments. For that matter, perhapsMega’s new employees as a group already possessed exceptional interpersonalskills, andtherefore Mega’s sales and customer relations would have improvedduring the ensuring months regardless of the seminar. Since the ad fails to consider and rule outthese and other alternative explanations for the improvements atMega, I find the ad’s claim that the Dickens seminar should receive creditunconvincing.
160.
A third problem with the argument is that it assumes thatlearning and memory are the only significant factors affectingperformance in school. Common sense and experience tell us this is not the case, anda variety of other factors, such as motivation and natural ability, also play majorroles. Thus, the compounds might very well turn out to be largelyineffective.
162.
The argument assumes that the difference in soyconsumption isthe only possible explanation for this disparity in the occurrenceof fatigue and depression. Yet the argument fails to substantiate this assumption.Common sense informs me that any one of a myriad of other differences—environmental,dietary, and genetic—might explain why North Americans suffer from these problems to agreater extent than Asian do. Without considering and ruling outalternative reasons for this disparity,the argument’s conclusion that soy is the key tothe disparity isindefensible.
168.
The argument also overlooks many other possible explanationsfor the comparatively low incidenceof hip fractures among this group of women. For example, perhaps these women were more physically fit thanaverage to begin with. Or perhaps the nursing homes where the group resided provided specialsafeguards against accidental injuries that are not ordinarily for most elderlypeople. Or perhapsFrench people are less susceptible to bone loss than other people are—dueperhaps to cultural dietary habits or genetic predisposition.For thatmatter, perhaps women aregenetically less disposed to lose bone mass than men are. Any ofthese scenarios, if ture, would undermine the conclusion that the lower incidence of hip fractures wasattribute to the additional vitamin D and calcium.
221.
A third problem with the argument is that it unfairly infersthat the proposed course ofcation is the only means of achieving the desired result. The letter’s author overlooks other possible means of ensuring that social-science students findimmediate employment—such as co-op programs, job seminars, and so forth. Without ruling out alternative means of achievingthe same goal, the author cannot convince me that the proposed course of action is needed.
224.
The author’s conclusion that Riedeburg is “the best-qualified candidate” raisestwo problems in itself.First,regardless of Riedeburg’srecord as governor it is entirely possible that one or more other candidates are actuallybetter qualified. Second, the letter fails to adequately define what makes a candidate for state governorqualified. Withoutindicating what the ideal qualifications would be and rulingout the possibility thatanothercandidate better meets these qualifications, the author cannot make a convincingcase that Riedeburg is thebest-qualified candidate.
236.
The article failsto consider any other course of action that might help Beauville attain the sameeconomic goals. Perhaps by improving its schools or hospitals, or by reducing itcrime rate, Beauville can just as quickly and effectively attract newbusinesses and achieve its economic objectives. In short, without weighing theproposal against alternatives, thearticle’s claim that theproposed incentives are the “best” means of achieving Beauville’s objectives iswholly unconvinving.
