AWA > Argument > Argument攻击套路4:过去推将来
Argument攻击套路4:过去推将来 收藏 纠错
Argument攻击套路4:过去推将来 收藏 纠错

作者: 发布时间:2020-09-21

Even assuming that Plainesville residentsare strongly interested in eating health foods and health-related products, therecommendation restson two additional assumptions: (1) that this interest will continue in theforeseeable future, and (2) that Plainesville residents will preferNW over other mechants that sell similar products. Untill the vice president substantiates bothassumptions I remain unconvinced that a NW store in Plainesvillewould be profitable.

The argument does not indicate how muchtime passed between the two studies. During a sufficiently long interim period thedemographic makeup of Leeville might have changed, or the reading habits of the firststudy study’s respondents might have changed. In other words, the longer the timebetween studiestheless reliable the conclusion that respondents in the first studymisrepresented their reading habits.

The author’s projection also ignores thepossibility that the number of area residents will increase in the future, thereby resultingin an increase in electricity usage regardless of whether more efficient appliancesare used in areahomes. Withouttaking into account these possibilities, the author cannot persuade me thattotal demand for electricity will not increase in the future.
A final problem involves the assertion that no new electric power plants are needed because the three existingplants, which are 20 years old, have always been adequate for the area’selectric needs. Theauthor fails to account for the possibility that the old plants are themselvesless energy efficient than a new plants using new technology would be, or thatthe old plants need to be replaced due to their age, or for some other reason. Besides, thisassertion ignores the possible influx of residents or businesses in the future,therebyincreasing the demand for electricity beyond what the three existingplants can meet.

The author’s inference that incentives which wereeffective in the past will also be effective in the futurerests on poorassumption that during the last 18months allconditions upon which their effectiveness depend have remained unchanged.Perhapsthe general economy is expected to turn down. Or perhapsother cities haverecently begun to provide similar incentives. Indeed, the fact that Dillton isalready providing these incentives might actually portend failure forBeauville, which might need to devise even stronger incentives to convincebusinesses to move to Beauville rather than Dillton.

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